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Forum:2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools) *2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) Preseason 90S.INVEST Unexpectedly, one invest on the Southwestern Indian Ocean just formed. It's at a low chance of formation according to JTWC. I doubt this would form. Hi!- 02:49, August 9, 2017 (UTC) :Dissipated (according to JTWC). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, August 10, 2017 (UTC) ::Saw this a couple days ago on JTWC and was a bit surprised to see something being monitored down there during their winter. ~ Steve Talk Page 05:03, August 12, 2017 (UTC) 91S.INVEST Don't think many will read this, but we have another unusual early-season invest here in the SWIO. The JTWC is monitoring it with a low chance of development. ~ Steve Talk Page 04:41, September 9, 2017 (UTC) : And another one... Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!- 03:57, September 11, 2017 (UTC) 92S.INVEST Here to report that another pre-season invest has formed west of the Seychelles. And it's up on JTWC with code yellow (low chance of developing). ~ Steve Talk Page 03:20, September 28, 2017 (UTC) : Ok, the pre-season invests are getting annoying now. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!- 14:32, September 28, 2017 (UTC) :: JTWC has now dropped it. ~ Steve Talk Page 18:22, October 1, 2017 (UTC) November 94S.INVEST This was a short-lived invest that I remember seeing on Tropical Tidbits a couple days ago. It's dead now. The SHem should start ramping up soon. ~ Steve Talk Page 19:58, November 18, 2017 (UTC) December 99S.INVEST North of Madagascar. No agency expects development, yet. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:10, December 5, 2017 (UTC) : Now low risk on Meteo France. Still no mention on JTWC. Ava, anyone? ~ Steve Talk Page 02:37, December 6, 2017 (UTC) :: Off the Mateo France outlook and about to make landfall near the Tanzania-Mozambique border. This won't develop anymore. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:35, December 9, 2017 (UTC) 90S.INVEST A new invest just northeast of Madagascar. Low risk on Mateo France, and appears to have more Ava potential than 99S ever did. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:35, December 9, 2017 (UTC) :Long dead... ~ Steve �� Happy 21:37, December 26, 2017 (UTC) 03S.AVA 94S.INVEST New one out in open ocean, up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL. Medium risk on TCWC Reunion. Could this be Ava? ~ Steve �� Happy 21:37, December 26, 2017 (UTC) :Up on JTWC with low chance, and high risk (code red) on TCWC Reunion. Here comes the season's first storm! ~ Steve �� Happy 06:45, December 29, 2017 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 01 25 mph/1006 mbar,should develop soon.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:36, December 30, 2017 (UTC) :looks to have plenty of model support.JoeBillyBob (talk) 11:53, December 29, 2017 (UTC) ::Now code orange on JTWC. TCWC Reunion appears to forecast a moderately strong cyclone heading towards northern Madagascar. ~ Steve Goodbye 05:50, December 31, 2017 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ava Fresh from TCWC Reunion: it has been named "Ava". Expected to make landfall on the eastern Madagascar coast on the 5th, likely strengthening more along the way. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:50, January 3, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Ava That was fast.60 mph/987 mbars. 09:38, January 4, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Ava Continues to intensify, 85 mph (JTWC 1-min) and 80 mph (10-min)/970 mbars. Expected to run parallel to the eastern Madagascar coast, and any population centers along that coast could receive plenty of impacts. JTWC forecasts a strong cyclone moving parallel to the coast (not good for them) while TCWC Reunion forecasts it to move inland and become a remnant low, before regenerating off the coast of southeastern Madagascar. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:51, January 5, 2018 (UTC) Overland Depression Ava Been an overland depression for a while now, and is just now moving back out to sea. It has some reintensification potential as it moves southeast of Madagascar. Hopefully it wasn't too bad there. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:49, January 7, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ava (2nd time) Back to a MTS, but unlikely to intensify much. Its structure got shredded by Madagascar. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, January 7, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Ava Been dead for a couple days already. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 04:58, January 12, 2018 (UTC) January 04S.IRVING 95S.INVEST On the JTWC outlook with a high chance of forming. Hi!- 17:51, January 5, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irving Actually, this has been named for at least a day now and has recently moved into this basin from the Australian region. Irving is expected to gradually intensify to about "Tropical Cyclone" intensity while staying out to sea. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:49, January 7, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Irving Uppped to STS, but JTWC already has this at C1 status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:38, January 7, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Irving This was Irving's maximum intensity. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Irving Dead since the 9th. I haven't really had time to update this due to college and real life. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC) 05S.BERGUITTA Zone of Disturbed Weather 02 High chance on JTWC and TCWC Reunion has declared it a "Zone of Disturbed Weather". It's currently out in open sea, but is likely to track towards Madagascar in the long run. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:03, January 12, 2018 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Berguitta This has become very intense and is now the equivalent to a major hurricane. It looks like a threat to Mauritius and Reunion. Also, this wiki has gone dead quiet. This will be my last post on this wiki until May, unless a surprise pops up. I'd rather not keep talking to myself. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:35, January 16, 2018 (UTC) :Berguitta just weakened to Category 2 status according to JTWC. Probably upwelling since it's been stationary for a couple of days already. Sorry for inactivity, I guess we're all busy (like me :/) or bored with this season's general SHEM inactivity... ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:27, January 16, 2018 (UTC) ::I’ve been busy, but trying to post more. Also Berguitta is now a Category 1. Leeboy100 Hello!! 01:22, January 17, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Back down to just a TC, intensity is at 85 kt/963 mbar. This could be potentially devastating for Mauritius and Reunion. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 16:16, January 16, 2018 (UTC) : Looks like Berguitta will hit the two islands in a day or two. Mauritius and Reunion are no stranger to tropical cyclones; in fact, the wettest tropical cyclones in the world have dropped enormous amounts of rainfall on the two islands, though the low intensity of this storm and it's forward speed should hopefully keep it from being too bad. Worst case is, this could stall like Gamede of 2007 or Hyancithe of 1980 and drop several feet of rain on the islands. But that aside, yeah, we usually don't pay as much attention to the SHem as we do the NHem, but sometimes activity kicks up here if a notable storm forms (like Winston). Ryan1000 05:47, January 17, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Berguitta I've noticed on my weather page on Instagram, many people were wondering if it would be like Hyacinthe or Firinga. Anyways, Berguitta is now at 80 kt/965 mbar (1-min sustained). 75 kt/965 mbar (10-min sustained). [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 13:26, January 17, 2018 (UTC) :Center just passed very close to Mauritius. La Reunion is next in the line of fire. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:10, January 18, 2018 (UTC) ::Berguitta just missed Reunion. Fortunately, Berguitta is not as bad as what the original forecast looked like. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 14:12, January 18, 2018 (UTC) ::::Currently the storm has caused at least 12 million in damage and at least 1 death. Hopefully it doesn't get much worse than that. Ryan1000 21:08, January 19, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Berguitta Downgraded back to a moderate TS and expected to continue weakening from here on out. Sorry to hear the impacts. :( Also, I didn't expect to see all of you guys suddenly posting after my "last post until May"! As long as there's still some activity here, I guess I will continue posting through the NHem off-season. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 23:56, January 19, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Berguitta Luckily, this storm has finally dissipated, and I hope that damage total and death toll stays the same. We do not need a destructive SWIO storm again. Ava was already enough when it caused 51 fatalities in Madagascar. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 14:40, January 20, 2018 (UTC) 06S.NONAME Tropical Depression 04 This was a short-lived TD that made landfall in northern Mozambique. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:35, January 16, 2018 (UTC) Overland Depression 04 And it's dying already. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:25, January 16, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 04 And it died off quickly. Hi!- 14:25, January 17, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of 04 (99S.INVEST) It's actually back up on JTWC, with code yellow (low chance) as it appears to be moving back over water. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 23:58, January 19, 2018 (UTC) :Still at code yellow, but I think there could be a slight chance that it could become a weak Cebile before running back into Mozambique or Madagascar. I really hope this hasn't caused major flooding in that country, as it has been stalled over the same general area of Mozambique since January 15. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 14:42, January 20, 2018 (UTC) ::I hope it wasn't too flooding either. This system has actually crossed Madagascar and is now entering the open Indian, where a chance of redevelopment could exist. I don't think I've ever heard of a storm make landfall in Mozambique and then move back out into the open Indian (not the Mozambique Channel, but everything east of Madagascar). Still code yellow per JTWC. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 03:03, January 22, 2018 (UTC) ::Code orange on jtwc.JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:01, January 24, 2018 (UTC) :::And it's dissipated. Appears to have been sheared to death. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:27, January 24, 2018 (UTC) 05S.CEBILE 90S.INVEST on tropical tidbits.JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:01, January 24, 2018 (UTC) :Okay, first of all, THIS IS NOT EVEN A CLASSIFIED STORM. Secondly, if this were to be invested, it would be Invest 90S, not 91S. Please pay attention to JTWC before posting things that are not true. Sorry to come off sounding rude. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 21:32, January 24, 2018 (UTC) :JTWC now has it at code orange. 19:18, January 25, 2018 (UTC) :High chance on RSMC la reunion for 2 days- 35 Mph TD as per JTWCJoeBillyBob (talk) 04:22, January 27, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Depression 05 Now a TD. Expected to become a strong Cebile later on. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 16:39, January 27, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Cebile I have no words.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, January 28, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Cebile Wtf?No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:50, January 28, 2018 (UTC) : I don't get what's so surprising about this. It's out in open ocean, in favorable enough conditions for strengthening. TCWC Reunion is now forecasting further intensification to an "Intense Tropical Cyclone". It will probably approach or even surpass Berguitta in strength. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:47, January 28, 2018 (UTC) :I hope this becomes a C5-equivalent storm, since it's in the open ocean. And I agree with Steve, nothing is surprising here. It's the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, January 28, 2018 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile Still rapidly intensifying, up to 90 kt 1-min, and 95 kt 10-min. Quite an incredible rate of intensification, Cebile was only 35 kt 24 hours ago. Kiewii 15:13, January 28, 2018 (UTC) : Yeah, it's been rapidly intensifying lately! I'm pretty surprised that it's already an "intense tropical cyclone". Now it's 100 knots (10-min), which is the equivalent of a C3 major hurricane in the Atlantic and EPac, and 944 mbars. It would be cool if it reached C5-equivalent. C5 fishspinners are my favorite storms to look at and track. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:23, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::Weakening now and down to C3 per JTWC. ;-; ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::Cebile looks better today, showing annular characteristics and a large eye. I wonder if re-intensification is possible? - Garfield Tropical Cyclone Cebile (2nd time) back down to TC status,but expected to restrengthen.JoeBillyBob (talk) 20:06, January 30, 2018 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile (2nd time) Back to a minimal ITC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:44, February 1, 2018 (UTC) It's been holding its own for a while, but it'll probably turn southeast and dissipate sometime next week. Ryan1000 06:49, February 1, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cebile (3rd time) briefly dipped below ITC status.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Cebile (3rd time) Wow,Cebile is going to have so much ACE.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:38, February 1, 2018 (UTC) : Yep. I'm quite surprised at how long this has been holding on. It should finally begin to weaken after tonight. Luckily it stayed out to sea and didn't affect land. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:20, February 2, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cebile (4th time) Yep,only weakening from her on out.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 2, 2018 (UTC) : Down to 70 knots (80 mph)/964 mbars. I was quite impressed by Cebile's strength and longevity. Farewell to what has been an amazing tropical cyclone. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:33, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Cebile (2nd time) Below TC status.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Cebile (2nd time) going through all of these.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Cebile dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:28, February 6, 2018 (UTC) : JTWC is actually still issuing advisories on it, with a 50 mph/45 knot windspeed observed. But it's dead according to TCWC Reunion. Farewell to a nice, long-lived and strong fishspinner. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:23, February 8, 2018 (UTC) ::100% dead now. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:41, February 12, 2018 (UTC) February 90S.INVEST Currently over southern Madagascar. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:41, February 12, 2018 (UTC) :Dead. The SWIO returns to inactivity. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:44, February 17, 2018 (UTC) 93S.INVEST currently only on tropical tidbits.GFS goes crazy with this,making it a C5 in a couple of days.JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:40, February 26, 2018 (UTC) : Located southwest of the Seychelles at the moment. Also code orange on TCWC Reunion (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/). Woah about that GFS run... if it gets that strong, it better stay out to sea! ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 02:38, February 26, 2018 (UTC) : : No longer expected to develop.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:34, February 27, 2018 (UTC) : March 11S.DUMAZILE 94S.INVEST : code yellow on JTWC but numbered as 94S? idk why.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:00, February 26, 2018 (UTC) : code red on TCWC Reunion and code orange on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:34, February 27, 2018 (UTC) ::I thought that 93S and 94S were the same systems to be honest... Anyway, here comes Dumazile! ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:59, March 1, 2018 (UTC) ::Very strong systems shown by all the major models. GFS keeps taking it down to near 900 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:56, March 1, 2018 (UTC) :::TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:35, March 1, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Depression 06 yawn.JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:14, March 2, 2018 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Dumazile zzzzz.somewhatinterestingly,GFS has still not backed off its sub-900 mbar forecast.No.1 Mobile (talk) 04:32, March 3, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Dumazile Upgraded to a severe tropical cyclone Roy25 03:20, March 4, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Now a TC on their scale. I've also updated the active storms header to include this storm. Nutfield001 (talk) 15:08, March 4, 2018 (UTC) now at 85 mph/965 mbars.No.1 Mobile (talk) 04:55, March 5, 2018 (UTC) :Peaked as a C3 on the SSHWS, but I suppose land interaction with Madagascar and eyewall replacement cycles meant the GFS scenario wasn't realised. Maximum 10-min winds were 85 knots, and maximum 1-min winds were 105 knots. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:21, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Depression (Ex-Dumazile) dead.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:24, March 7, 2018 (UTC) : I liked how this system became quite strong and despite threatening Madagascar's eastern coast, doesn't appear to have caused any damage or deaths. ~ Steve Talk Page 05:50, March 10, 2018 (UTC) 91S.INVEST Out in the open near 99S. Low chance of forming. Roy25 21:01, March 9, 2018 (UTC) 99S.INVEST Also out in the open near 91S. Also has a low chance of forming. Roy25 21:01, March 9, 2018 (UTC)